WASHINGTON, D.C. — Two days out from the Nov. 3 midterm elections, the leading forecast models agree that Democrats are positioned to take back the House, while control of the Senate remains a closer call.
Republicans go into Tuesday holding the House 218 to 214 and the Senate 53 to 47. Democrats need a net pickup of just three House seats to end Speaker Mike Johnson’s majority.
Most models put Democratic chances of flipping the chamber between 82% and 95%, with central projections landing around 235 to 240 Democratic seats, a gain of roughly 20 to 25. The national generic ballot average shows Democrats ahead about 51% to 42%. Redistricting before this cycle moved about nine seats toward Republicans, which trims some of that edge.
The Senate map is tighter. Polling averages show Democrats ahead in seven races that would flip Republican seats, in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, and an independent backed by Democrats narrowly leads in Nebraska. Four of those leads are 3 points or less. Michigan is the one Democratic-held seat seen as at risk, though polls there favor the Democrat.
History works against the party holding the White House. Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Donald Trump lost 54, 63 and 40 House seats in their first midterms, in 1994, 2010 and 2018.
Pollsters caution that surveys are snapshots, and a turnout surge or a polling miss could narrow the result. Close races could also take days to call after polls close Tuesday.
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